Jakarta, INTI - South Korean technology company, Samsung Electronics, is projected to post a record 18-fold increase in operating profit in the second quarter of 2026. This impressive performance is driven by the massive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, which has triggered a global memory supply shortage and driven up chip prices.
CNA reported that based on LSEG SmartEstimate data from a consensus of 30 leading analysts, Samsung is expected to post an operating profit of KRW 86 trillion (approximately USD 56.35 billion) for the April–June 2026 period.
The figure is a sharp increase compared to the KRW 4.7 trillion achieved in the same period last year, marking the company's third consecutive record-high quarterly profit.
Memory Shortage and AI Demand
Analysts predict that the undersupply in the memory market will persist until at least next year. Interestingly, this growth is not only supported by the High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) segment, but also by the surge in demand for conventional products such as DRAM and NAND due to the expansion of the agentic AI ecosystem.
Unlike previous AI applications that focused solely on training large language models, agentic AI systems execute complex, multi-stage tasks. This requires significantly more server memory capacity and external data storage during the inference process.
According to Citi Research data, the impact of this supply shortage has driven up the average selling price of DRAM products by 44 percent and NAND components by 53 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter.
This situation has brought the market valuations of the world's three chip giants, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, together to surpass USD 1 trillion. This is after the three companies’ shares skyrocketed 158 percent, 273 percent, and 242 percent, respectively, this year.
Official Report Potentially Below Consensus after Employee Bonuses
Despite the strong macro outlook for the semiconductor sector, analysts warn that the official financial report at the end of the month could be slightly below consensus due to accounting for employee bonuses.
At the end of May, Samsung avoided a mass walkout after agreeing to a new wage agreement, where the company allocated 10.5 percent of its semiconductor division's operating profit for special staff bonuses. The cumulative value of this provision is estimated to exceed KRW 40 trillion, making the timing of the charge a key factor in second-quarter net profit.
Meanwhile, Samsung's smartphone business is starting to face margin pressure as the high cost of internal chip components is eroding profits, even though the company has raised prices for its devices to consumers.
In the long term, JPMorgan highlighted the risk of sustainability in capital expenditure allocations from cloud computing service providers. Currently, AI memory spending accounts for up to 52 percent of their total budgets and is projected to exceed 70 percent next year.
Investors are now demanding concrete evidence of whether breakthrough commercial AI services can generate real revenue growth to justify the high cost of computing infrastructure investments.
If this spending trend slows down, it risks overshadowing Samsung's long-term projections, which have committed to a massive investment of USD 2.07 trillion with SK Hynix to expand its domestic factory capacity in South Korea until 2040.
Conclusion
Samsung Electronics is projected to record an 18-fold surge in operating profit in the second quarter of 2026 to around KRW 86 trillion, driven by soaring demand for memory chips due to the rapid development of AI, which has triggered a global supply shortage. In addition to demand for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), growth is also supported by the increasing need for DRAM and NAND as the agentic AI ecosystem develops, requiring larger memory and data storage capacities.
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