Jakarta, INTI - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer simply an emerging computational technology. It has evolved into a strategic game-changer capable of reshaping the engines of global economic growth. The key question for Indonesia is no longer whether the country is ready to adopt AI, but how it can develop the strategic capabilities needed to turn AI into a meaningful driver of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

This question has become increasingly important as Indonesia seeks new sources of economic growth beyond its traditional reliance on domestic consumption and finite natural resources. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that the national economy grew by 5.11% in 2025, with nominal GDP reaching IDR 23,821.1 trillion.

While Indonesia’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain resilient, achieving sustained growth above the 5% range will require a significant increase in innovation-driven productivity. Such transformation is also critical if the country is to avoid the middle-income trap and meet its long-term economic ambitions.

From AI Adoption to AI-Driven Productivity

From a strategic management perspective, the projected economic value of AI should not be viewed as an automatic outcome of technological adoption. A 2020 study by management consulting firm Kearney estimated that AI could generate up to US$366 billion in economic value for Indonesia by 2030, equivalent to around 12% of GDP. Meanwhile, Public First’s AI Economic Opportunity Report 2026 estimated that AI could generate as much as IDR 910 trillion in additional economic value for Indonesia.

However, these projections will remain unrealized potential unless the domestic ecosystem can accelerate AI deployment and translate it into measurable productivity gains. One of the biggest strategic mistakes for businesses and governments would be to treat AI merely as a digital cost-cutting tool rather than as a long-term strategic capability.

Strategic management scholar David J. Teece (2007), through his Dynamic Capabilities framework, argued that organizations operating amid technological disruption need three core capabilities: sensing opportunities and threats, seizing opportunities by mobilizing resources, and reconfiguring assets and business processes to adapt to change.

Applied to Indonesia’s AI-driven economic transformation, this framework can be translated into three interconnected stages.

First, AI Sensing: Identifying high-impact and high-leverage sectors where AI can deliver significant economic value, ranging from manufacturing and precision agriculture to public services.

Second, AI Seizing: Mobilizing investment in research, fiscal incentives, data center infrastructure, and innovation-friendly regulatory frameworks.

Third, AI Reconfiguring: Redesigning business operations, workforce management, organizational structures, and supply chains to fully integrate AI-driven capabilities.

The potential productivity impact is already supported by empirical evidence. A 2023 NBER study by Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey Raymond, involving 5,179 workers, found that generative AI increased average productivity by approximately 14%, with productivity gains reaching 34% among less-experienced workers.

These findings reinforce AI’s potential as a tool for human augmentation, enhancing workers’ capabilities rather than simply replacing human labor.

AI Strategy → Productivity → Competitiveness → Investment & Exports → GDP Growth

Democratizing AI: Empowering MSMEs

Indonesia’s national AI strategy should not be concentrated solely among large corporations and technology unicorns. Broad-based economic impact will depend heavily on extending AI capabilities to millions of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), which play a critical role in employment and remain a backbone of the national economy.

The World Bank’s 2026 productivity analysis highlights a major challenge facing developing economies such as Indonesia: the slow creation of high-productivity jobs, with a large share of workers remaining concentrated in activities with relatively low value added.

Bringing AI adoption down to the MSME level could create significant productivity gains. Applications ranging from market behavior analysis and supply chain optimization to automated marketing and access to global customers could enable smaller businesses to operate more efficiently and competitively.

At scale, these productivity improvements could generate a powerful multiplier effect, strengthening the contribution of MSMEs to GDP while supporting higher real incomes for Indonesia’s growing middle class.

AI Governance and Responsible AI

Accelerating AI capabilities also requires two critical structural foundations: talent and ethical governance. Indonesia cannot afford to remain merely a net importer or passive consumer of global AI technologies. Its national strategy should prioritize large-scale reskilling and upskilling programs in areas such as data science and AI engineering, alongside stronger protection of locally developed intellectual property.

At the same time, Responsible AI must become an integral part of the country’s AI development strategy. Data privacy, algorithmic transparency, cybersecurity, and accountability are essential to building public trust.

Without strong and responsible governance, rapid AI adoption could instead create social disruption, increase market resistance, and undermine confidence in emerging technologies.

Ultimately, Indonesia’s AI race is not about how quickly people can download or deploy the latest AI application. The real competition lies in the nation’s ability to strategically transform AI from technology into productivity, productivity into competitiveness, and competitiveness into sustainable GDP growth.

That transformation will be essential if Indonesia is to build a stronger, more innovative economy and realize its broader ambition of becoming an advanced nation by 2045.

Conclusion

AI is increasingly becoming a strategic foundation for Indonesia’s next phase of economic growth. To unlock its full potential, the country must move beyond basic adoption and focus on building AI-driven productivity across industries, empowering MSMEs, developing skilled talent, and establishing responsible governance. With the right strategy, AI can strengthen national competitiveness, attract investment, expand exports, and create a more sustainable pathway toward higher GDP growth and Indonesia’s 2045 development ambitions. 

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